Arkansas W2W4 Report Card

Predictions We Got Right

Auburn fans will be wondering “what else is on” early in the third quarter of the Arkansas game. As Bear would say, “Bingo!  That’s a goodie!”  It was 38-0 with 11:27 to go in the third quarter. 
If AJ can stay upright and in the locked position, he should be able to connect downfield. AJ had time to complete 11 of 16 passes and eat two little Debbie cakes while sitting in the pocket.  Bama QBs averaged over 15 yards per completion.
Arkansas will sell out to stop the run. Well, they tried, ok?  I didn’t say they’d be successful – only that they’d try!  They were mildly successful early.
Running the ball will be a point of emphasis against the Hogs. Early runs by battering ram Eddie Lacy established the tone early and it never stopped.  Even Ben Howell gained three yards per carry.
We won’t line up in the I formation more than twice. Kind of a “duh” pick but with the loss of Fowler I didn’t even think we’d pretend the I was part of our offense anymore.  We didn’t show it once unless you count the goal line look with Jesse Williams leading the way (albeit the wrong way) at FB.
Hart and Drake will have to step up – I like Drake between the two of them. Shake and Drake, baby, shake and Drake!  6 carries for 57 yards for Drake to 4 carries for 21 yards for Hart.
Slot guys will own a huge advantage over the piggy secondary. Once again the slot receivers continued to be the primary targets for Bama QBs.
Bama will give up fewer than three sacks this week. Try ZERO.  Winner, winner, piggy dinner!
Ely will come in before Blake Sims. Ding!  They alternated but Ely was the first one off the bench.
Look for curls and dig routes to be a huge part of the game plan. This was a huge order of the day.  With Hog defenders playing waaaaaay back, Bama WRs could run any route they wanted – particularly little curls and hitches.
Alabama will have more yards rushing against Arkansas than they did against WKU. You’d think an SEC opponent would put up more of a fight than WKU but Arkansas didn’t – it wasn’t even close (225 – 103).
The Arky staff isn’t good at coaching. They’ve been weighed.  They’ve been measured.  They’ve been found wanting…
We’ll find out the name of the Hogs’ third string QB. Meet Brandon Mitchell.
Tyler Wilson will not play and Arkansas will be living in “Allen-town” While Wilson warmed up, he was just some kind of weird decoy.  Um, yeah, you fooled us John L.
Arkansas will look to lean on their running game They rushed the ball 37 times, with 20 coming from Knile Davis.
Kelly Gragg (Arkansas TE) will lead them in receptions. He led them with three receptions.
Arkansas as a team will not go over 100 yards rushing. They rushed for 58 yards.
Alabama will get a season high number of sacks. Barely got this one right as Bama recorded four sacks – previous high was three against Michigan.
Bama will record their first and second sacks via the blitz. Boom and boom!  This was a gutsy pick but Arkansas simply cannot pick up a blitz of any type.
If Allen starts, he won’t take every snap.  They tried to mix in a little spread option with Brandon Mitchell.  Nothing worked and Mitchell went 1 for 7 passing, proving why he was moved to WR.
The Bama offense will begin clicking. Click! Click!  Boom!
Bama wide receivers will be open all day long. Easy pickings.
The OL will have a mad on and a hunger for some fried pork lins – scattered, smothered, covered, chunked and diced for effect. I don’t think I could have gotten this one more right.
You’ll see a few exotic blitzes. Exotic to me means getting a rusher to come free for a sack and there were two of these.
It should be an easy win this week. 52-0 defines easy win.
You will want to check your local listings to see what else is on around 3:30. Yep.  I said it.  And I was right!  Even CBS was laughing about having to go to their blow out material at the 6:49 mark of the 2nd quarter.

 

Predictions We Got Wrong

AJ will get sacked once due to a speed rush around the end. He nearly got sacked but threw the ball into the stands to avoid it (and put me into the near miss category).  So close.
Alabama will beat #35 in coverage at least three times. Arky played mostly zone so they never matched him up in man to man.  Sigh.
Alabama will record a strip sack and advance the fumble. Got the sacks right but no strips.
Either Lester or Perry will pick off a high throw. I got the position right but not the player.  Clinton-Dix picked off the deflected high throw.
Arkansas will throw the ball over 60% of the time. Yeah, so why in the world would I predict that Arkansas would lean on the running game and then also predict they would throw the ball over 60% of the time?  Our fact checkers and mathematicians have all been sacked and we will mark this as being very, very wrong.

 

Correct – 26

Incorrect – 5

 

 

The Bama Lighthouse staff will be offline for a short while as it seems we’ve injured our arms patting ourselves on the back.  This week was easily our best week of predictions.  Tune in Friday as we’ll tell you what to watch for (W2W4) in the Florida Atlantic game!

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