W2W4 Missouri Report Card

W2W4 Missouri Report Card

This week was not our best prediction week at the Lighthouse.  In fact, we are thinking of renaming the site to the “In the Dark” House because we missed on some significant predictions.  But, nonetheless, we post the good and the bad here so read on and find out where it all went wrong!

Predictions We Got Right

If Sheldon Richardson is handled, Bama should win easily.  Other than his hit on AJ, Richardson was rarely heard from Saturday.
Look for Saban & Coach Nuss to employ a lot of three, four and five wide receiver looks, a la the BCS championship game against LSU.  Alabama rarely lined up with fewer than 3 wide receivers on offense.
These multiple wide formations will force Mizzou to declare their coverages and make it much easier to identify their blitzes they love to employ. Missouri rarely blitzed when Alabama spread them out which is contrary to their usual style.  When they did blitz, AJ was able to get the ball out easily.
Slot receivers Amari Cooper, Christion Jones and Cyrus Jones (who has to emerge with the loss of DeAndrew White for the season) should have more favorable matchups and will have to play big roles in the passing game this week.  Working out of the slot, these three (love getting the call right on Cyrus Jones playing) receivers caught 7 of the 12 passes thrown to Bama wide outs. 
With Mizzou committing all those men to the line of scrimmage, it only reasons that, once you crease it, the Bama backs could run a long way. See the second play of the game.  Eddie Lacy ran 73 yards for a TD after the OL creased the front seven.
Look for Alabama running game to test the outside perimeter defenses of Mizzou.  Most of Yeldon’s 144 yards were gained outside of the tackles.  Lacy’s long run was outside of the tackles as well.
With the need for multiple receivers, I don’t think you’ll see as much of Vogler and Johnson in this game, particularly Vogler.  Pretty dead on with this one.  We were in three wide (or more) most of the day except in short yardage situations.
Sheldon Richardson will have at least one sack and at least two tackles for loss. Even with Richardson leaving the game for a short time with an injury, he still registered a sack and spent some quality time in the Bama backfield.
The forecast for the Mizzou offense is a 100% chance of pain with partly scattered Tigers… Missouri had three yards rushing and 129 total.  Ouch.  Oh, and one of their runningbacks got to see the sky and his feet at the same time.  Ouch.
The Missouri offense is putrid. Three.  Yards.  Rushing. 
Look for Mizzou backs to get tackled a few times just after they take the handoff as they patiently wait for the Bama d-linemen to swarm the backfield. There were five tackles for loss on running plays.
Look for lots of plays going outside for Mizzou’s offense. Three wide receivers got a carry and everything Lawrence tried was to the outside.  It worked to the tune of three….yards….rushing.
This should be a game that introduces Jesse Williams to the CBS audience.  Well, Jesse got some very nice coverage by CBS both as a nose tackle and as a fullback.  Did you know that he’s one of four non-punters playing from Australia?
I foresee at least three sacks because their offensive line is just so bad.  Bama recorded three sacks and inflicted painful pressures numerous times.
Missouri will have less than 75 yards rushing as a team. Did I mention the three yards rushing already?
Berkstresser will throw at least two picks. He threw exactly two picks – sweet!  One by Vinnie Sunseri and one to Clinton-Dix.  Ha Ha!
Berkstresser will complete less than 50% of his throws. The ‘stresser completed 12 of 29 attempts.  My math is awful but I’m pretty sure that’s less than 50%.
One play they’ll find success with is swinging the ball out to Lawrence (#4) out of the backfield. Surprisingly, they only threw the swing to Lawrence twice but once it did go for a first down.
Look for a few Mizzou snaps to go array…

 

The punt that was blocked was off a bad snap.
The good news for Missouri fans will end sometime shortly after Sara Evans Barker sings the national anthem.  This was an awesome call only two plays into the game.
The offensive woes of the Tigers should set AJ and the offense up time after time with excellent field position.  This really couldn’t have been more right.  The inept Mizzou offense committed two turnovers and couldn’t move the ball all day long.
The only thing that could derail the Tide this weekend would be a significant storm that would level the playing field of talent.  I’m giving myself some latitude here as the storm did derail the Tide.  After the game was suspended due to lightning, Bama just wasn’t the same.
Final Score:  Alabama 30    Missouri 7 Tough call here.  I picked Alabama to cover the spread, so I got that part right and I came within 9 points of getting the spread exactly right so we’ll put this down into the “close enough for government work” category.

 

Predictions We Got Wrong

With the Tiger defenders crowding the box, intent on stuffing the running game, the Bama offense will have to air it out.  Wrong, wrong and more wrong.  The weather and Bama’s ability to run the ball torpedoed this prediction.
Look for Alabama to fail to convert on 3rd and 2 or shorter a couple of times on Saturday. Alabama never found itself in 3rd and 2 or shorter.  Bama did bulldoze Mizzou at the goal line so I’m putting this down as a miss.
This will be a much, much closer game than you want it to be unless the defense or special teams contributes a score or two.  Well, the defense and special teams both contributed but not enough to consider this a close game otherwise.
I predict the offense, particularly the running game, will frustrate the heck out of Bama fans quite a bit on Saturday.  Not even close to being right.  Soooo incredibly wrong.  Worst prediction of the year, in fact.
Alabama will pass for at least twice as much yardage as they run for. Or this one was the worst prediction of the year.  It’s a toss up.
Christion Jones and Amari Cooper each have a big game, with Amari playing the role of “go to” receiver on third downs. While Cooper did lead the team in receptions, I can’t really call it a “big day.”  Cooper was targeted on third down only twice.
No Bama back will gain over 100 yards.  Just a wee bit wrong here.  Lacy had 177, Yeldon had 144 and, as a team, Bama rushed for 362 (379 if you take away Mandel’s 17 yard loss).
Alabama will not get their average of 188 yards on the ground. Ha!  Wrong again.  How about Bama will get twice their average on the ground?? 
AJ will throw at least two touchdown passes.  Or, he’ll throw ZERO touchdown passes.  Whiff!
Alabama will complete a pass to a back (I’m thinking swing pass but it could be a screen) which will catch the Tigers in a blitz. I felt really good about this one.  We had two screens to Lacy which were perfectly set up but he just couldn’t break loose.
I also predict that AJ’s interception streak comes to an end Saturday.  While AJ did lose a fumble, he did not throw an interception.
I look for Mizzou to take at least 2 or 3 shots downfield to DGB. Well, since Green-Beckham didn’t even play, this obviously never happened.
Lawrence, a RB, leads Missouri in receptions and yards.  Lawrence did not lead them in yards or receptions – Washington had 4 catches for 74 yards while Lawrence had only 2 catches for 12 yards.

 

Predictions We Got Right – 23

Predictions We Got Wrong – 13

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