W2W4 Report Card – Tennessee

W2W4 Tennessee Report Card

The Lighthouse staff is pretty excited to present the Tennessee Report Card this week.  There were some things we called that, due the hours of film study the entire staff devoted to this game, we were dead on.  While Tennessee’s offense didn’t quite live up to our expectations, the Vol defense was as advertised – atrocious!  But, we also called the Cyrus Jones muffed punt so, all in all, this was a pretty good W2W4!

Predictions We Got Right

Look for the Tide to go back to the play (or variations of it) that they found so much success with in Columbia. Correct.  We used this running play a couple of times but the variation was a nice TD pass to Cooper.  Also, Yeldon’s 43 yard TD run came off a variation of this play.
It should be a big day for the ground game. It was a bit more of a struggle than the Lighthouse predicted but, in the end, Alabama gained 233 yards while turning Ole Smokey into road kill.
Look for square ins to be open. It wasn’t a square in, per se, but as predicted the middle of the Vol defense was open.  My favorite play was the long gainer to Norwood where he was locked up on a linebacker 20 yards downfield!
Vol linebackers will leave Bama TEs and backs open in coverage.  Michael Williams had two catches including a wide open touchdown and Eddie Lacy caught one where he bobbled it, caught it, looked around, sipped a cup of moonshine, bobbled it again and eventually ran up the field for a first down.  No one was close to him.  Bell, Norwood and Cyrus Jones all caught passes against UT linebackers as well.
Slot receivers will run unencumbered thru the middle of the Vol secondary. See previous note but Bell, Norwood and Cyrus Jones all were open in the middle of the secondary.
Lacy and Yeldon will combine for over 150 yards. They combined for 208 yards rushing.
Alabama as a team will rush for over 200 yards. The team rushed for 233 yards.
Most of this will be gained outside the tackles. I’m giving myself credit here but it was close to 50/50.  Yeldon’s 43 yard run outside sells me on this one being right.
Look for a couple of jock drops by the Vol secondary as they whiff their way to Sportscenter. I could not have been more right on this!  On one play, Lacy went “circle button” on two Vols and literally left them both grasping for air.  Yeldon had several carries that found him one on one with a safety and he simply got abused.
Norwood and Cooper will each snag passes over 20 yards down  field. Norwood had a 35 yard reception and Cooper had catches of 54, 23, and 42 yards.
Michael Williams will have a season high in catches. He caught 2 passes, tying his season high and he caught a wide, wide, wide open touchdown.
If AJ is sacked more than once I’ll be shocked. AJ was tackled for a sack one time.
The Vols will not get close to 183 yards rushing. Tennessee rushed for 79 yards.
I think the Vols will get roughly half of their rushing average. Half of 183 is 91.5.  I’d say 79 yards is roughly half of 183, wouldn’t you?
Look for Tennessee to run the ball on third and 7 or longer. On third and 7 from the Tennessee 37, Lane ran six yards.
After getting hurt, I look for Bray to throw off his back foot much more often Saturday. I felt he was on his back foot the entire game.  He only completed 13 of his 27 passes.
Sacks will be hard to come by. Alabama did not sack either Vol QB.
Back foot throwing will catch up with Bray and he’ll throw one really, really bad pick. The Lighthouse rejoices with this pick.  I mean, does anyone know who Bray was throwing the ball to when CJ Mosley intercepted the ball?
Cyrus Jones will muff a punt. YES.  WE.  DID.  The Lighthouse staff called this one and, I have to say, we just broke our arms patting ourselves on our backs…


Predictions We Got Wrong

The Battle of Wounded Knees should be a high scoring affair. Well, it was for Alabama so I should get partial credit, right?  Wrong.  I thought UT would score more than 13 points.
My guess is Bama will employ zone blitz packages and three man fronts that mix up the fourth and fifth pass rushers. Well, the long pop pass to Rivera (TE) was a play that caught us in a zone blitz but, overall, blitzing wasn’t a part of the Bama game plan.
Look for Alabama to run the ball on third and 7 or longer. This never happened.  Not once.  Sigh.
The Tide will get only one sack on the day. Or none.  Alabama did not register a sack Saturday.
Patterson will have trouble separating from Milliner but he’ll still haul in 5 catches for 60+ yards. Right prediction, wrong UT receiver.  Justin Hunter caught four passes for 70 yards and should have had a fifth catch for another 40 yards.
Zack Rogers will catch one over the middle for 20 yards. Rivera was the guy who snagged one over the middle for significant yardage.  Again, right pick, wrong guy.  Argh.  Oh, and Rogers didn’t catch a pass or have his name called all night long.
We expect this one to be closer than the experts think (37-24). The Lighthouse staff was right in thinking UT would move the ball like no one has thus far this season as they set a season high in yards gained.  What we didn’t foresee was the pick in the end zone, the turnover on downs and the dropped pass by Justin Hunter that would have trimmed the winning margin down quite a bit.  Thus, the Lighthouse takes a hit on this prediction. 


Total of Correct Predictions:   19

Total of Incorrect Predictions:  7


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