W2W4 Report Card – Mississippi State

This week the Lighthouse staff is rejoicing in the fact that we identified State as an over-hyped wannabe contending team.  While we narrowly missed on a few bold predictions, the Lighthouse was “spot on” more often than not.  Let’s go to the tote board…

 Predictions We Got Right 

The national media is making MissState out to be a great team but the Lighthouse staff says they are mediocre. The Lighthouse staff tried to tell you MSU was overrated due to their poor strength of schedule.  We were right on here.
Norwood, Bell and Jones should have more production than usual as Cooper is limited. Each receiver had one catch but they went for 14, 22 and 57 yards – the 57 yarder was a touchdown to Bell.  Meanwhile, Cooper was third in yards and Lacy & Williams had as many or more catches then Cooper did.
Alabama will give up at least one sack. Bama gave up two sacks.
Alabama will use the screen game to neutralize the blitz. Bama threw numerous screens including the 27 yard TD to Lacy.
Bama will go over 200 yards of offense passing. 237 yards passing.  Ding!
Yeldon will go over 70 yards Yeldon rushed for 80 yards.
Bell, Norwood and Jones will combine for at least one TD catch. Bell hauled in a 57 yard bomb for a TD.
Mullen has yet to create a successful offensive game plan against Saban and we don’t see this changing Saturday night. Once again Mullen’s team was held to 10 points or less against Saban.
MSU will rush for less than half their season’s average (90 yards). The ‘dogs rushed for a whopping 47 yards.
The H-backs and tight ends will combine for 7 catches and a touchdown. They combined for 8 catches, 61 yards and their lone TD pass.
State will work the underneath routes and get several first downs. Surprisingly, MSU got 16 first downs against the Tide, many of which occurred on a 90+ yard march to the Bama 2 yard line where Robert Lester’s interception saved the day.
State will abandon the running game early and rely on Tyler Russell to win the game. True to form, MSU tried 21 rushes as compared to 36 passes.  Yes, the score dictated a lot of this but you could tell State wasn’t committed to the running game.
The Bulldogs will play the role of the shrinking violet as they’ve never played in this type of game. Three turnovers.  A blocked field goal.  A 24-0 halftime deficit.  Yeah, I’d say State wilted under the spotlight.
Bama will have a botch free night in the kicking game. Special teams could not have played any better in this game.
There should be no chance of a letdown against State given their national ranking and undefeated record. The Tide was definitely focused for this game.
The film, the stats and history all point towards an easy victory over the Dogs and we agree. 38-7 and another year that Alabama has put down the Dogs.

 Predictions We Got Wrong 

Bama should eclipse the 200 yard mark in rushing. If you remove the two times AJ was sacked, Alabama rushed for exactly 200 yards.  So close.
Crossing patterns should be deadly. Honestly, Alabama didn’t go to the crossing routes much against State.
Double moves will be deadly against State. I don’t recall seeing a single double move all night long.
At least twice Alabama will crease the blitz and Bama ball carriers will go for 20+ yards. This one was a bold prediction and we barely missed it.  Drake busted off a 30 yard run but that was the only big run of the night.
Bama will go over 200 yards of offense rushing. Argh.  179 yards rushing.  If you take away the two McCarron sacks Bama rushed for 200 yards on the button.
Lacy will rush for over 70 yards Lacy was held to 26 yards rushing.  He did account for 51 yards receiving which would put him over the 70 total yard mark.
Bell, Norwood and Jones will combine for 9 catches Or, they’ll each have one single solitary catch.  Michael Williams and Eddie Lacy caught 5 and 4 balls respectively and that kinda threw us off.
Bell, Norwood and Jones will combine for 130 yards. They combined for 93 yards.  Not bad but not quite what we’d expected.
The Lighthouse is guessing Christion Jones returns punts this week. Wrong Jones.  Cyrus returned punts this week and seems to have solidified his role as a returner.
Final Score 37-16 Wow – we nearly nailed this.  IF State had made the field goal and had scored from the Bama 2, the Lighthouse’s crystal ball would have been bronzed.  But, as it turned out, the Bama D and special teams were reluctant to give up anything to the Dogs.

 

Correct Predictions – 16

Incorrect Predictions – 10

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