The Notorious PAB is back again this week with some in-depth statistical analysis of Alabama vs Mississippi State. Enjoy!
Bama and Mississippi State – Performance Against Common SEC Foes
Records, AP Poll and CFP Rankings
Alabama Crimson Tide 9-0 overall 6-0 in SEC #1 in SEC West Division
Mississippi State Bulldogs 4-5 overall 2-3 in SEC #6 in SEC West Division
Bama is, as expected, ranked #1 in the AP Top 25 Poll for Week 11, released November 6. This comes after the Tide’s epic defensive effort, a 10-0 victory, against the then-#15 LSU Tigers in “Death Valley.” (LSU has dropped to #19.) Bama received 24 of 25 first-place votes – the other one going to the Michigan Wolverines – and accumulated a total of 1524 points out of 1525 possible.
Bama has played two teams currently in the Top 25 Poll: Texas A&M (#10) and LSU (#19). In addition, three teams that faced the Tide received votes: USC (76 points), Arkansas (74) and Tennessee (9 points).
Mississippi State received no votes in the Week 11 poll. The Bulldogs have competed against three teams that are ranked: Auburn (#8), Texas A&M (#10) and LSU (#19).
College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings
In the second College Football playoff rankings, released November 8, Bama is seeded #1. Mississippi State is not ranked. Looking at their common SEC foes, Texas A&M is #8, LSU is #24 and Kentucky is unranked. In addition, Auburn, which defeated the Bulldogs, 38-14, on October 8, is in the #9 slot.
Common SEC Foes to Date
So far in the 2016 season, Bama and Mississippi State have taken the field against three common SEC foes:
Kentucky 5-4 overall 4-3 in SEC #2 in SEC East Division AP, CFP – not ranked
Texas A&M 7-2 overall 4-2 in SEC #3 in SEC West Division AP #10, CFP #8
LSU 5-3 overall 3-2 in SEC #4 in SEC West Division AP #19, CFP #24
Game outcomes – Bama
Oct. 1 Bama at Kentucky WIN 34-6
Oct. 22 Bama vs. Texas A&M WIN 33-14
Nov. 4 Bama at LSU WIN 10-0
In these three games, Bama has scored a total of 77 points (25.7 ppg) while allowing only 20 (6.7 ppg). In its other SEC contests – versus Ole Miss, Arkansas and Tennessee – Tide scoring was prolific and remarkably consistent: 48, 49 and 49 points respectively (48.7 ppg average). Bama gave up a total of 83 points (27.7 ppg average), including 43 to Ole Miss in a game that the Tide won by less than a touchdown, 48-43.
In the games against common foes Kentucky, Texas A&M and LSU, we see reduced scoring and stingier defense. Bama’s scoring margin across these two sets of games very consistent: +19.0 ppg against common foes and +21.0 against other SEC teams. The Tide has shown that it can win a high-scoring game against Ole Miss and come back seven weeks later to gut out a 10-0 defensive gem at LSU.
Game outcomes – Mississippi State
Sep. 17 Mississippi State at LSU LOSS 20-23
Oct. 22 Mississippi State at Kentucky LOSS 38-40
Nov. 5 Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M WIN 35-28
Mississippi State scored a total of 93 points in these three game (31.0 ppg) and allowed pretty much the same: 91 points in all for 30.3 ppg. The two losses came by 3 and 2 points, while State’s one victory was by 7. Looking at games against South Carolina (27-14) and Auburn (14-38), the Bulldogs put 41 points on the scoreboard, but surrendered 52; 20.5 ppg scored vs. 26.0 ppg allowed. The most scored by Mississippi State in any game is 38 – in a two-point loss to Kentucky – and the best defensive effort was holding South Carolina to 14 for a 13-point victory.
Scoring and scoring defense – quarter breakdown
The numbers for the Bama defense are rather stunning. In the 12 quarters played against Kentucky, Texas A&M and LSU, 0 points have been allowed in 8 of them, 3 points in 2 quarters and 7 points in another 2 quarters. In other words, the Bama defense has shutouts in 67% of the total game time. The Aggies were the only squad to score a TD against the Tide.
On offense, Bama gathered most of its points in the second and third quarters: 28 of 34 points against the Wildcats, and 20 of 33 points against Texas A&M. In its defensive slugfest against the Tigers, all 10 points by the Tide came in the decisive fourth quarter.
For the Bulldogs…
Quarter 1: 14 points scored ; 21 points allowed ; -7 margin
Quarter 2: 31 points scored ; 22 points allowed ; +9 margin
Quarter 3: 13 points scored ; 21 points allowed ; -8 margin
Quarter 4: 35 points scored ; 27 points allowed ; +8 margin
The first and third quarters are bad news for the Bulldogs. Mississippi State outscored LSU 17-0 in the second half, but that wasn’t enough to overcome a 20-point halftime deficit. Against the Wildcats, State led 14-6 at intermission, but Kentucky came back and enjoyed a 34-24 margin over the last two quarters. The Bulldogs did a nice job against the Aggies, leading 28-14 at the half, clamping down during a 0-0 third quarter, and getting one more TD in the final stanza to win 35-28.
Aggregate game statistics
BAMA MISSISSIPPI STATE
Points scored: 77 (25.7 ppg) Points scored: 93 (31.0 ppg)
Points allowed: 20 (6.7 ppg) Points allowed: 91 (30.3 ppg)
Margin: +19.0 ppg Margin: +2 points
Total yards: 1262 (420.0 ypg) Total yards: 1206 (402.0 ypg)
Total yards allowed: 564 (188.0 ypg) Total yards allowed: 1328 (442.7 ypg)
Margin: +698 yards (232.7 ypg) Margin: -122 yards (-40.7 ypg)
Comp / att: 50 / 82 Comp / att: 48 / 84
Comp %: 60.1 Comp %: 57.1
Yards: 586 (195.3 ypg) Yards: 504 (168.0 ypg)
TD: 4 TD: 4
INT: 3 INT: 3
Yards: 676 Yards: 702
Attempts: 145 Attempts: 129
Yards / att: 4.7 Yards / att: 5.4
TD: 3 TD: 7
Fumbles lost: 2 Fumbles lost: 1
First downs: 69 (23.0 fdpg) First downs: 58 (19.2 fdpg)
Third-down conversions: 23 / 45 Third-down conversions: 16 / 44
Third-down efficiency: 51.1% Third-down efficiency: 36.4%
Penalties: 17 for 93 yards Penalties: 15 for 115 yards
Time of possession: 99:32 (55.3%) Time of possession: 91:36 (50.9%)